Energy fact sheet

Greenhouse gases

Level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere

Current level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is equivalent to approximately 430 parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide CO₂, and is rising by around 2 ppm each year. This is to be compared to a 280 ppm per industrial levels.
On average, CO₂ represents 77 per cent of the greenhouse gases emitted. CO₂, methane and nitrous oxide are the three anthropogenic greenhouse gases included in the 2005 Kyoto Protocol.

Energy production and consumption are responsible for around 65 per cent of global anthropogenic emissions. CO₂ represents approximately 94 per cent of the greenhouse gases emitted in the energy industry. [1]
Electricity produced from the combustion of fossil fuels is responsible for more than 40 per cent of total global emissions of CO_2.
A quarter of all emissions are attributable to industrial processes such as gas processing, petroleum refining and fabrication of cement, steel and iron. Current energy-related emissions stand at more than 29Gt of CO₂ per year. [2]
The top ten CO₂ emitting countries are responsible for two thirds of the world emissions, and the five largest emitters are responsible for 55 per cent of all emissions. These countries are: China (around 6Gt CO₂ per year), United States (5.8Gt), Russian Federation (1.6Gt), India (1.3Gt), Japan (1.2Gt), Germany (0.8Gt), Canada (0.6Gt), United Kingdom (0.5Gt), Korea (0.5Gt) and Iran (0.5Gt). [3]

In a worst-case scenario where no significant action is taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that global average temperatures are likely to increase by 2.4°C to 6.2°C [4]. As an indication of the scale of such warming levels, current average temperatures are 5°C warmer than the average temperatures in the last ice age.
The developing world is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, as climate conditions in developing regions are already unfavourable, while the economies of developing countries are structurally more vulnerable to climate events (reliance on agriculture, mediocre public service and health care) and their low revenues limit drastically their ability to adapt to climate change.
The consequences of a 5-6°C warming would lead to an average loss in global GDP of 5-10 per cent, while the poorest countries would incur a loss in excess of 10 per cent GDP. [5]

The IPCC recommends that CO₂emissions be reduced by 50-85 per cent compared to 2000 levels by 2050, which would correspond to a global increase in temperature limited to 2 to 2.4°C. This requires a stabilisation of emissions between 450 and 550 ppm in the next 10 to 20 years, before they start to decrease by at least 5 per cent per year.
Some 60-70 per cent of power production will need to be carbon-free by 2050 to stabilise emissions at 450-550 ppm.

Stabilising emissions at 500-550ppm CO₂ equivalent is estimated to cost around 1 per cent of global GDP by 2050. This is an average cost: actual costs range from -1 per cent (net gains resulting from new market opportunities) and +3.5 per cent of GDP. [6]
Due to the long lifetime of CO₂in the atmosphere, delaying action on climate change will lead to more radical climate change and greater related costs and higher mitigation costs. The present social cost of carbon is thus much higher in a business-as-usual scenario (around US$85 per tonne of CO₂) than if strong action is immediately taken (US$25-30 per tonne of CO₂) for a target between 450-550 ppm.

CCS is a critical part of a suite of available climate mitigation options, which also includes a shift to renewable and nuclear energy, energy efficiency and sustainable land use.
The IEA (International Energy Agency) estimates that CCS will account for 20 per cent of needed emission reductions – the same percentage as renewable energy. [7]

Since 1971, the global primary energy supply has more than doubled as demand rose driven by a growing population and the recent, intense economic growth in developing countries.
Between 1992 and 2007, the share of coal and gas in electricity and heat generation rose significantly (from 43 per cent to 53 per cent for coal and 12 per cent to 23 per cent for gas), while the share of oil decreased as a result of the 1992 oil price shock.

Despite the increase of non-fossil energy generation, the share of fossil sources in overall energy production remains relatively constant at 82 per cent due to a strong rise in demand.
Around one hundred new conventional thermal power plants are being constructed each year, the majority of them in China.
Coal is an emission-intensive combustible, which represents 25 per cent of the global primary energy supply but accounts for around 42 per cent of energy-related emissions. Australia, China, India, Poland and South Africa are particularly reliant on coal, which accounts for 68 to 95 per cent of their electricity and heat generation. [8]

According to recognised reference scenarios, global energy supply is projected to increase by 40 per cent between 2007 and 2030. [9]

[1] IEA, Emissions from Fuel Combustion (2009)

[2] Ibid.

[3] IEA, Key Energy Statistics (2009)

[4] IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007)

[5] Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change (2006)

[6] Ibid.

[7] IEA, Energy Technology Perspectives (2008) and World Energy Outlook (2007).

[8] IEA, Emissions from Fuel Combustion (2009)

[9] IEA, World Energy Outlook, 2009