Insights and Commentaries
Climate Talks Commence
15th December 2015
Topic(s): Carbon capture, law and regulation, Policy, use and storage (CCUS)
The 21st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP21, UNFCCC) is being held in Paris. These landmark international climate negotiations are considered the best opportunity for the international community to agree on meaningful action to combat climate change. The Global CCS Institute is attending the Conference and representing carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology as a mature, large-scale technological option for reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. This Insight from the Institutes Mark Bonner, Principal Manager - International Climate Change, sets the scene on the opening days of the Conference.
Just about everything to do with these climate talks seems different when compared to the last five COPs that the Institute has engaged in. A number of very significant aspects of these talks give the impression that Paris represents a marked change from previous years.
Political endorsement
The conference kicked off with an unprecedented presence of global leadership. Political decision‑makers normally arrive for the last few days of the conference to sanction much needed compromises (something that government officials aren’t authorised to do); and attendance is ordinarily at the ministerial level – not prime‑ministerial or presidential. The Leadership Event on Monday, 30 November organised by the French COP 21 Presidency, saw 150 Heads of States (not including royalty such as the Prince of Wales) pledge their commitments to addressing climate change; and in doing so, created excellent political conditions going forward to broker a deal in Paris.
Reasonable expectations
The expectation amongst seasoned observers seems to be that not much can/will be achieved in this first week – which sees Parties predominantly focused on streamlining and reducing the number of options across the six core elements being negotiated, including: mitigation, adaptation, finance, technology development and transfer, capacity building and transparency. While such expectations are not uncommon at these COPs, the atmosphere in the corridors of COP21 is more positive than what has been felt in many years past. Tighter security has curtailed protests compared to previous years, and many delegates are expressing a high level of confidence in the French Presidency to produce a ‘take it or leave it’ offer at the end of the second week if all else fails, in many respects serving as a ‘fail-safe’ insurance policy.
Confidence in the process
While there is much discussion on the inadequacy of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) – many Parties have expressed confidence in the ability of 5-year reviews starting in 2020 to realign the necessary emissions reduction pathway with the 2 degrees C goal. So, unlike the Kyoto Protocol which was pre-occupied with securing quantitative mitigation commitments from a few developed countries, the Paris Agreement is about uniting all countries in a common cause first, then enabling the mechanisms needed for all of them to meaningfully contribute. This has to a certain extent, further de-risked the possibility of failure in the striking of a new climate agreement.
Pieces coming together
There seems a higher degree of awareness amongst delegates that the clean energy technologies capable of driving the majority of emissions reductions needed within the required time-frames currently exist and are available, including CCS, and the sorts of policies to support them are well known and affordable. Arguably of more importance is a general recognition that sufficient sources of finance also exist, albeit not currently directed towards these clean energy technologies. While these may seem unremarkable insights, they demonstrate the value of the ADP’s initiative to host Technical Expert Meetings to enhance the technical understanding of delegates; as well as promoting the fundamental need for the private sector to re-allocate its resources to more climate friendly investments. While the UNFCCC is a government-led process, many more consultations are now being held between the chairs of UNFCCC bodies and the business community; and the good work of the Green Climate Fund (GCF) Private Sector Facility (PSF) continues to further highlight that the scale of climate investments required far exceeds the available funding envelopes of public balance sheets.
CCS on stage
The show-casing of CCS at COP21 is substantial. Up until COP20, the Institute was pretty much the sole advocate for and source of information on CCS in the UNFCCC. Not only was the Institute one of the few organisations to host CCS side-events and exhibits but it was the first CCS‑dedicated Network member of the Climate Technology Centre (CTCN). By the end of COP21, there will have been some 19 CCS related side-events (with the Institute either hosting or co-sponsoring seven) and three CCS exhibits (with the Institute hosting or co-hosting two); while two other CCS expert organisations were recently accepted into the CTC’s Network (with another indicating its intention to join next year). The Institute is very encouraged by this growing critical mass of CCS expertise available to the UNFCCC on the back of its pioneering advocacy efforts.
All in it together
While the aggregate impact of INDCs is expected to slow emissions growth by approximately a third for 2010–2030 compared to the period 1990–2010; seemingly more attention is being attributed to the fact that 157 INDCs have now been submitted (representing some 184 countries and 97% of global emissions) showcasing for the first time globally comprehensive climate actions, programs and policy settings to be implemented at the national level. This demonstrates the power of the UNFCCC’s international arrangements to spur national climate actions.
Changing of the guard
Finally, this will be Ms. Christiana Figueres’ last COP as Executive Director of the UNFCCC given that her second three year term ends in July 2016. There is no doubt she has been a terrific ambassador for climate change since her appointment in 2010 – and it will be interesting to see what the personality of future negotiations might be under any new leadership. Next year will also see Ban Ki-moon depart as UN Secretary General having been appointed in 2007. So 2016 will likely see a lot of change – with the chaperoning in of a new climate agreement (and the implementation challenges that will inevitably present), a new Executive Director of the UNFCCC and a new UNSG.
A new approach
Success in Paris will not produce the panacea to climate change but it was never intended to. As a milestone event in the 21 year history of the UNFCCC, it will likely deliver a new approach to combating climate change – one that is more bottom-up and decentralised in regards to promoting climate action. This will hopefully lead to a greater inclusiveness of countries to enact meaningful mitigation action, as well as enhance investment certainty as climate actions get transposed into national legislation, policy commitments and settings. This bodes well for CCS, as deepening national mitigation requirements coupled with appropriate policy settings can only lead to more commercially attractive business cases for CCS and help facilitate its wide‑scale deployment to deliver the scale of emissions reductions needed at the lowest cost. The Institute remains at the ready to further assist in any way it can the evolving processes of the UNFCCC.