Insights and Commentaries

Tempered optimism in lead up to COP21 climate talks

15th May 2015

Topic(s): Carbon capture, Economics, law and regulation, Policy, use and storage (CCUS)

The Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (C2ES) convened a forum on 23 April in Washington, DC to examine the issues, options and priorities for the upcoming Paris climate talks. In this insight, Victor Der, Executive Advisor - Americas for the Global CCS Institute, outlines the perspectives presented and the outlook for an agreement at December’s Paris climate talks, the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, widely known as COP21.

The Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (C2ES) moderated The Path to Paris: National Perspectives on a New Global Climate Agreement, on the 23 April in Washington, DC. The briefing examined the issues and options for a new global climate agreement at the December COP21 meeting in Paris. Several of the negotiators from 24 countries were panelists at the briefing at which more than 100 participants attended.

The briefing consisted of two informal panel discussions. The co-chairs of the Toward 2015 Dialogue, Valli Moosa, the former Minister of Environment - Republic of South Africa and Harald Dovland, Former Chief Negotiator - Norway, discussed the outlook for a Paris agreement. The second panel, Gao Fung, Special Representative for Climate Change Negotiations, Ministry of Foreign Affairs – China; Jake Werksman, Principal Advisor, DG Climate Action – European Commission; Pa Ousman Jarju, Minister of Environment, Climate Change, Water Resources, Parks and Wildlife – Gambia; and Jo Tyndall, Climate Change Ambassador, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade – New Zealand discussed their countries’ top priorities.

While the perspectives presented appeared to reflect hopeful optimism leading up to Paris, it was tempered by the challenges and complexities of the process. While the prominent leadership roles of key governments (ie the US, China and European Union in particular) and the November 2014 US-China Joint Announcement on Climate Change were cause for optimism, it was guarded by the concern. This was expressed in the first panel discussion, where concerns were raised that although an agreement may be reached there may be a shortfall in the number of participating countries and the voluntary contributions needed to meet the 2°C target by 2050 and carbon neutrality by 2100. The importance of, and need for follow up to the Paris COP21 was also noted.

Key points included:

• A “hybrid process”, a top-down and bottom-up approach whereby countries are invited to put forth their intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs), is underway. One point raised was that countries are asked to submit their INDCs before knowing the “rules of the game”.
• A key element is the need for flexibility to accommodate the core principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities” as stated in the outcome from the Lima COP20.
• Common but differentiated goals can accommodate “gray areas” or degrees of country development levels (vs a binary designation between developed and developing nations under Kyoto’s Annex I and Annex II).
• Three common threads were woven into the panel discussion:
  1. implementation (the need for additional agreements to follow after Paris), 
  2. balance (accounting for divergent views, interests and concerns, mitigation as well as adaptation), and 
  3. inclusion (need for all to participate).
• The need for transparency and accountability to measure, review, and verify in order to track progress against the pledged contributions.
• The importance of inclusion of adaptation (from the developing countries, and especially island nations) alongside mitigation. This should include provisions for financing, technology transfer, and capacity building to chart a pathway forward for developing countries.
• The agreement itself will need to focus on the issue of which part should be legally binding and enforceable, and be written with an aspiration for tomorrow (rather than reduced to the lowest common denominator) and build on flexibility.
• There was mixed optimism on the role of carbon markets with insufficient demand to drive a global market in the near-term. However, there could be more momentum in the coming years, especially as China advances and tests out its emerging domestic carbon market and other countries get their domestic houses in order.

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