Insights and Commentaries

Insights and Commentaries

The role of Carbon Capture and Storage in a decarbonised world

15th May 2015

Topic(s): Carbon capture, law and regulation, Policy, use and storage (CCUS)

The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) is a global initiative coordinated by the United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN)[1]. Last year the Pathways to Deep Decarbonization, 2014 Report was released, which provides a comprehensive analysis on how the world’s largest emitters, including Australia, could decarbonise their economies by 2050 while maintaining economic prosperity.

This Insight by Anna Skarbek, Chief Executive Officer of Climateworks provides an overview of the role of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the decarbonisation pathways of nine major emitters. CCS refers to CO2 being captured from industrial processes and transported via pipeline to an appropriate geological site for storage underground.

CCS can play an important role in decarbonisation

One of the key findings of the 2014 report is the important role of CCS in the pathways modelled. Deep decarbonisation (or zero net emissions) requires a transformation of energy systems that sees the near phasing out of fossil fuel combustion with uncontrolled emissions.

Figure 1 - Electricity generation mix in 2050 for the 15 Deep Decarbonization Pathways (SDSN & IDDRI 2014)

While not used by all 15 research teams, CCS plays a significant role in the decarbonisation pathways developed by Canada, China, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, Russia, the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States (US)[2]. These teams assume a significant share of coal and gas-fired power generation with CCS by 2050, as per Table 1, below.

Previous Insights provides an overview of the role of CCS in Australia and the three near-zero carbon electricity scenarios modelled, one of which includes carbon capture and storage (CCS). It also highlights CCS’ critical role in reducing non-energy emissions from Australian industry.

Table 1 - Modelled contribution of CCS to the electricity generation mix in 2050

Country

Percentage of total energy mix

Applications

Australia

20

CCS technologies would be applied primarily to industry processes.

Canada

15

CCS will be used for large-scale switching to decarbonised electricity and in offsetting industrial processes.

China

20

CCS technologies would be applied in power generation and in the industrial sector.

Indonesia

41

Deployment of CCS could cover most coal and gas plants, reducing CO2 emissions for heavy industry

Japan

35

Natural gas equipped with CCS could account for a third of total electricity generation by 2050.

Mexico

37

Electricity generation from all fossil fuels will require CCS in all generation plants.

Russia

34

Almost all coal and natural gas fired power plants would be equipped with CCS by 2050.

UK

37

Biomass with CCS is used in decarbonised power generation, district heating and within industry and buildings.

US

30

CCS technologies would be applied in power generation.

While CCS is not yet deployed at large scale, the modelling assumes the technology is commercially viable by 2025/2030, based on assumptions provided by the International Energy Agency (IEA)[3].

Further research and development into CCS technology is required

One response to ensure the viability of critical abatement technologies is the recent initiative from the SDSN, IEA and the World Business Council for Sustainable Developmentto create low-carbon technology Public Private Partnerships (PPPs). Implemented by governments and business, the partnerships aim to accelerate the research, development, demonstration and diffusion (RDD&D) of key low-carbon technologies.

It is hoped the launch of five low-carbon technology PPPs will be announced at the upcoming international climate talks, the Conference Of the Parties (COP21) in Paris in December. This includes:

  • CCS at point source (fossil fuel-fired power plants and carbon intensive industries) and through direct air capture
  • Advanced renewable energies, in particular high-efficiency and low-cost solar Photovoltaic (PV) and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)
  • Low and zero-carbon transportation technologies, including battery electric and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles
  • Second (from lignocellulosic and woody crops, and from agricultural residues or waste) and third (from algae) generations biofuels
  • Energy storage, smart grids, and long-distance transmission of electricity through superconductivity

All of the critical technologies are already available at the pilot scale but are not yet ready for large-scale deployment because of uncertain technical reliability, inadequate or insufficient technical performance and high costs. The IEA identify that the large-scale deployment of CCS requires:

  • Improvement of the efficiency of capture technologies
  • Reduction in the parasitic energy load of CO2 capture[4]
  • Identification of suitable storage sites
  • Development of sequestration techniques
  • The building of pipelines to transport CO2 from where it is captured to where it is stored

The planned Paris launch of the PPPs proposes to include outlining quantitative objectives based on technology roadmaps, including joint commitments to scale up RDD&D funding, with the view to reach clear technology performance and costs objectives, as well as joint actions to accelerate the diffusion of existing technologies.

Public-private partnerships can accelerate low-carbon technologies as they provide financial security to businesses for uncertain research projects and reduce the time between the conception of a technology and its deployment. Rather than attempting to choose a winner, PPPs ensure there are a number of technologies available to assist with the long-term goal of reaching zero net emissions by 2050[5].

Nine of the world's top emitters include CCS in their decarbonisation pathway

Canada - The Canadian deep decarbonisation pathway could achieve an overall emissions reduction of nearly 90 per cent from 2010 levels by 2050 while maintaining strong economic growth, mostly driven by a reduction in the carbon intensity of energy use. By 2050 renewables and biomass would be the dominant energy sources and there is broad fuel switching across the economy toward electricity and biofuels. CCS will be required to ensure successful large-scale switching to decarbonised electricity and will play an important role in offsetting industrial processes including fuel production and mineral extraction.

China - In the Chinese pathway energy-related CO2 emissions could decrease by 34 per cent compared to 2010 levels, mostly due to a reduction in primary energy use and energy-related CO2 emissions from structural changes and increased energy efficiency. By 2050 fossil-fuels are expected to reduce to 24 percent of electricity generation (20 per cent coal) and non-fossil fuel energy will increase, an even split between wind, solar and hydro. Nuclear would increase to 25 percent by 2050 and natural gas will act as a backup for intermittent generation. CCS technologies would be applied in power generation and in the industrial sector with CCS facilities implemented on 90 per cent of coal power plants and 80 per cent of natural gas power plants. CCS is expected to sequester 28 per cent of total CO2 emissions in the industry sector in 2050.

Indonesia - By 2050 Indonesia can drastically change its energy supply and demand mix through the significantly increased use of renewables (solar, geothermal, hydropower, and biofuels), nuclear and natural gas, while oil and coal consumption could be reduced. The use of biofuels in transportation, industry and power generation could increase and rural communities would be electrified using local renewable resources (microhydro power, solar PV). Deployment of CCS could cover most coal and gas plants, reducing CO2 emissions for heavy industry . Storage capacity in the countries abandoned oil and gas reservoirs is around 11,000 Mt, more than three times the space required for carbon storage to 2050.

Japan - Japan’s pathway could be achieved through improved energy efficiency, reduced energy demand and the decarbonisation of power generation. By 2050, fossil fuel consumption in Japan is expected to be 30-35 percent of total electricity generation, a reduction of 60 percent compared to the 2010 level. Renewable energy could increase to 60 per cent (hydro, wind, solar) while nuclear power is reduced to 19 percent of electricity generation by 2030 and five percent by 2050. Electricity generation from coal without CCS is entirely phased out by 2050 and natural gas equipped with CCS could account for a third of total electricity generation by 2050.

Mexico - By 2050 electricity generation in Mexico could consist mostly of solar, at 40 percent, and natural gas, at 35 percent, with small amounts of wind, hydro, geothermal, coal, nuclear and oil. Much of the projected reduction in CO2 emissions across sectors relies on reducing the carbon intensity of electricity generation, coupled with a switch from the combustion of fossil fuels to the use of electricity. Electricity generation from all fossil fuels will require CCS in all generation plants and Mexico will need the potential capacity to store approximately 200 million tons of CO2 every year.

Russia - Russia’s pathway relies on the decarbonisation of energy production and electrification of the economy. It is predicted Russia will see a decline in energy intensity and in population. By 2050 total coal use could drop to three percent of energy production and natural gas could increase to 36 percent, almost all coal and natural gas fired power plants would be equipped with CCS by 2050. Oil will drop and renewables (including biomass) will increase significantly to 32 percent and nuclear will increase to 22 percent. With assumed CCS availability, geothermal will be expanded after 2040. It is uncertain whether CCS will be available under competitive costs in Russia; if CCS is not available the use of renewables could be increased as an alternative pathway.

United Kingdom - The UK pathway has a strong focus on the decarbonisation of the power sector by 2030, allowing low-carbon electricity to becoming a major factor in emission reductions. Also key are fuel-switching through electrification, improved efficiency and retrofitting. By 2050, electricity generation could see a large expansion in nuclear, wind and natural gas with CCS. Nuclear would account for about 30 percent and renewables about 25 percent of electricity generation. For the UK, biomass with CCS is critical in decarbonised power generation, district heating and within industry and buildings. The UK is well placed to benefit from CCS technology with significant storage capacity for captured CO2, particularly in the North Sea. The UK pathways team believes a strong focus now on CCS by the UK and other countries could see its wide-scale deployment by the late 2020s and see the transition to a low-carbon economy is an opportunity for significant investment in research and development and infrastructure.

United States - The US pathway shows it is technically feasible for the US to reduce emissions to 85 per cent below 1990 levels. Three key areas for decarbonisation include energy efficiency, decarbonisation of fuels and fuel switching from high-carbon to low-carbon supplies. By 2050, electricity generation mix in the US could see renewables increasing to 40 percent and nuclear increasing to 30 percent of total electricity generation. Fossil fuels (oil, coal and natural gas) would decrease to 30 percent including a near 90 percent reduction in petroleum use. No fossil fuel generation without CCS will occur in 2050, the US pathway acknowledges that for this to occur it is important no more new coal generation facilities without CCS are built today. The combination of renewables, gas-fired CCS generation and hydropower provide a balance of resources and long-term reliability of power supply.

 


[1] The DDPP is a collaborative initiative to understand and show how individual countries can transition to a low-carbon economy and work to limit a global mean surface temperature rise (less than 2°C). The 15 participating countries, including Australia, represent 70 per cent of global GHG emissions and have all developed a national pathway to deep decarbonisation by 2050.

[2] The pathway described is one possible pathway that has been modelled, other pathways are available if the assumption of commercially available CCS by 2025/2030 is not realised.

[3] ClimateWorks Australia, 2014, Pathways to Deep Decarbonization in 2050: How Australia can prosper in a low carbon world: Initial Project Report, p 12

[4] The parasitic load of CO2 capture is the extra amount of primary energy necessary to produce final energy when carbon capture is added to the transformation process

[5] Sustainable Development Solutions Network, 2014, Building Low-Carbon Technology Public Private Partnerships, SDSN, Unpublished

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