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VII Scenario calculations

The goal of this chapter is to estimate environmental and economic effects of a large market launch for micro CHP in OECD countries. Therefore cost and scenario calculations are done. This results in estimation of CO2 reduction potentials and estimated CO2 avoidance costs.

The scenario calculations are split into two parts: The first part is the so called single technology analysis which focuses on the micro CHP technology itself. The second part of the scenario analysis is concentrated on the operating conditions in different climatic zones and the averaging process for the OECD. In this way results from chapter VI are used to come to an average CO2 reduction potential for OECD countries..

With regard to international R&D activities in fuel cell systems, it can be said, that a strong focus is the application in the residential sector, i.e. single family houses. In the Annex I countries of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) room heating and hot water preparation are main sources for carbon dioxide emissions (~8% of the world carbon dioxide emission [UNFCC, 2008]) and it is essential to introduce highly efficient systems which can contribute noticeably to CO2 emission reduction.

Fuel cells are seen as such efficient conversion systems and worldwide many companies are developing small fuel cell house heating systems. So far this part of the analysis concerns the application of fuel cell systems as house energy generation units. A typical capacity range for house heating fuel cells is 1-3 kWel / 4-8 kWth. The system is completed by an integrated condensing gas burner which ensures the supply of the household heat demand at peak load.

The scenarios are not created for prediction of future market shares of micro CHP. The intention is to point out the effects on such items as CO2 reduction potential or CO2 avoidance costs of a set of assumptions.